"Whether it's consumers finishing up their shopping or procrastinators who are just starting, there will be a lot of shoppers in the stores this weekend," he added.

The Association says a big weekend could help retailers come closer to their projections for the season. Retailers went into the season projecting, on average, a 2.2 percent increase in sales over last year's holiday shopping season, according to the Michigan Retail Index survey conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Based on the Association's examination of the credit and debit card sales it processes for thousands of Michigan stores, the Association estimates holiday sales were up less than 1 percent through last weekend.

Meanwhile, the November Index survey showed that 42 percent of Michigan retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 44 percent recorded declines and 13 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 48.1, down from 52.0 in October.

Thirty-seven percent believe their sales will increase for December-February over the same period last year, while 39 percent say sales will decline and 23 percent expect no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 56.0, down from 65.0 in October.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.

Michigan Retailers Association/Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Michigan Retail Index

November 2007 results

Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at
www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html

November Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago

(numbers in parentheses indicate October results)

           % Increased   % Decreased   % No Change   Index*       Responses
Sales             42 (44)       44 (39)       13 (16)       48.1 (52.0)  106 (133)
Inventory       38 (37)       21 (23)       36 (34)       60.8 (51.2)  102 (127)
Prices             39 (43)         3  (8)       55 (43)       69.8 (66.6)  104 (127)
Promotions     47 (38)         5  (7)       44 (49)       68.6 (60.1)  103 (127)
Hiring              9 (12)          9  (8)       78 (70)       48.9 (46.9)  103 (121)

Outlook for Next 3 Months

Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago

(numbers in parentheses indicate October results)

           % Increased   % Decreased   % No Change   Index*       Responses
Sales           37 (48)       39 (27)      23 (24)        56.0 (65.0)   106 (133)
Inventory     19 (25)       43 (33)       33 (36)       45.4 (51.0)   102 (127)
Prices          42 (42)         6  (6)       47 (46)        66.2 (64.4)   102 (126)
Promotions  36 (45)       13 (10)       44 (41)        63.9 (67.1)   100 (129)
Hiring           3 (10)       14 (10)       75 (72)        44.1 (46.6)     99 (124)

November Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region

(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)

               % Increased     % Decreased     % No Change
North             36  (9)         55 (59)          9 (32)
West             50 (54)         31 (27)         19 (19)
Central          47 (53)         47 (41)          6  (6)
East              25 (33)         50 (25)         25 (42)
Southeast      46 (39)         43 (39)         11 (22)

Question of the Month

Relative to last year, how are your margins on holiday merchandise?
Larger 14.0%          Smaller 26.2%          Same 59.8%

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.